Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to transform nearly every aspect of society, from work and productivity to democracy and global security. While the full potential of AI is yet to be realized, the policies and regulations established today will shape its future trajectory. The upcoming 2024 United States election will play a crucial role in determining the direction of AI governance in the United States.
The Trump Administration’s Approach to AI
During the Trump administration, AI governance primarily focused on promoting the development and adoption of AI systems. The administration issued two major executive orders that laid the groundwork for AI policy. The first was the American AI Initiative, which emphasized training American workers, fostering public trust, protecting civil liberties, and engaging internationally. The second order outlined principles for government use of AI and required agencies to publish inventories of their AI use cases.
Internationally, the Trump administration aimed to limit adversaries’ access to advanced technologies, particularly targeting China. In 2019, the Department of Commerce added Huawei and its affiliates to the Entity List, restricting the sale of goods and services without a license. In 2020, SMIC, China’s leading semiconductor foundry, was also added to the list, with restrictions on exporting equipment for advanced AI systems.
The administration also participated in international forums to develop AI norms, supporting the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development’s AI principles, joining the Global Partnership on AI, and adopting principles on the use of lethal autonomous weapons at the United Nations.
The Biden Administration’s AI Policies
The Biden administration has taken a more balanced approach to AI governance, emphasizing both the promotion of AI development and the mitigation of risks. One of its key initiatives was the Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights, published in October 2022. This set of values, although not legally binding, aimed to guide the development of safe and responsible AI.
The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 significantly shifted the conversation around AI in Washington. Since then, numerous bills related to AI governance have been introduced, though comprehensive legislation has yet to pass. In the absence of such legislation, the White House has used executive authorities to steer AI policy.
In July 2023, the Biden administration established Voluntary AI Commitments on safety, security, and trustworthiness with leading AI developers. These commitments, while not legally binding, have been widely adopted by industry leaders. The administration’s October 2023 executive order mandated safety test result sharing, imposed know-your-customer requirements on cloud service providers, and set standards for federal agencies on AI safety, security, and privacy.
Internationally, the Biden administration has engaged in AI governance discussions with the European Union, the G7, and other global partners. It has also restarted bilateral dialogues with China on AI safety and risk management, despite expanding tariffs and export controls on advanced semiconductors.
Potential Future Directions
Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, has played a significant role in AI policy efforts. If elected, a Harris administration would likely continue the current administration’s focus on risk mitigation and responsible AI development. The existing executive order would serve as a guiding document, and efforts to engage internationally on AI safety would likely persist.
In contrast, former President Donald Trump has vowed to rescind the Biden executive order on AI if re-elected. The Republican platform calls for AI development rooted in free speech and human flourishing, opposing what they see as excessive regulation. Rescinding the executive order would eliminate one of the few legally binding transparency mechanisms for AI developers, potentially reducing oversight of powerful AI systems.
AI and U.S.-China Relations
AI policy is a significant aspect of U.S.-China relations. The Biden administration has engaged in dialogue with China on AI safety while simultaneously expanding export controls and tariffs. A Harris administration would likely continue this dual approach, balancing cooperation with strategic competition.
Trump’s approach to China has been more confrontational, and a second Trump administration would likely further tighten restrictions on Chinese technology companies. This could impact global AI development, as maintaining export controls requires compliance from key allies who control critical semiconductor supply chain chokepoints.
Implications for Civil Rights and Innovation
The Biden administration has focused on the impact of AI on workers and marginalized communities, aiming to address potential disruptions caused by AI. Vice President Harris has emphasized that harms to individual rights and well-being are as significant as existential risks posed by AI.
A second Trump administration might deprioritize these issues, given its deregulatory stance and opposition to concepts like diversity, equity, and inclusion. This could lead to less focus on mitigating the impact of AI on vulnerable populations and more emphasis on promoting innovation without extensive regulation.
Consensus on AI Safety
Despite differing approaches, there is broad agreement on the need for AI safety and the management of catastrophic risks from frontier AI systems. Both administrations have recognized AI as a powerful technology requiring careful oversight. While there is opposition to perceived overreach by the Biden administration, voluntary commitments and self-governance measures could align with a deregulatory Trump administration’s preferences.
The 2024 election will significantly influence the future of AI governance in the United States. The policies and priorities of the next administration will shape how AI technologies are developed, deployed, and regulated. Whether through continued risk mitigation and responsible development or a shift toward deregulation and free speech, the decisions made in the coming years will have profound implications for the role of AI in society. As AI continues to evolve, the importance of thoughtful and balanced governance cannot be overstated.
