South Korea’s AI Safety Institute (K-AISI) has published its AI Safety Forecast Report which analyses 125 global AI safety news articles from August to October 2025 and identifies three scenario pathways that reflect how technical, governance, and geopolitical forces are reshaping global AI safety: (1) the first scenario envisions governance centered consolidation, where regulations, standards, and formal oversight frameworks led by actors such as the EU and China become the dominant organizing mechanism; (2) the second scenario describes industry driven systematization, in which frontier firms like Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, and Google DeepMind shape practical safety norms through testing methods, evaluation tools, and internal assurance frameworks that spread globally; and (3) the third scenario highlights security first fragmentation, where the US and China integrate AI safety into national security strategies, diverge in safety certification systems, and weaken international information sharing.
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